How rare is gible/bagon

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FaishBoi
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Thu Mar 28, 2019 3:01 am

how rare is gible or bagon cos ive been looking for 6hours straight and im starting to go insane
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ChilenoEnDinamarca
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Thu Mar 28, 2019 4:29 am

Very very rare, If this this not correct, please remind me: Gible appears 1 in 34,500 pokemon.
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LoneWarrior
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Thu Mar 28, 2019 4:33 am

ChilenoEnDinamarca wrote:
Thu Mar 28, 2019 4:29 am
Very very rare, If this this not correct, please remind me: Gible appears 1 in 34,500 pokemon.
The spawn rates of Pokemon have not been revealed, bit I doubt they would be that low.

What the Caterpie calls the end of the world, the master calls a Butterfree.




FaishBoi
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Thu Mar 28, 2019 4:33 am

WOW
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ChilenoEnDinamarca
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Thu Mar 28, 2019 5:06 am

LoneWarrior wrote:
Thu Mar 28, 2019 4:33 am
ChilenoEnDinamarca wrote:
Thu Mar 28, 2019 4:29 am
Very very rare, If this this not correct, please remind me: Gible appears 1 in 34,500 pokemon.
The spawn rates of Pokemon have not been revealed, bit I doubt they would be that low.
Yeah, as LoneWarrior says, it is true about the rates, they are not revealed, my info is based on these calcs made Orkan, and since it is from almost 3 years ago, stuff might have change too. But, Gible is stil very very rare... people do find more shiny pokemons that Gible it self.
viewtopic.php?f=19&t=4956#p24617
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Zachriel137
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Thu Mar 28, 2019 12:20 pm

I've found 10 shinies before founding a gible, that took me almost a week of hunting without leaving the grotto
LoneWarrior
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Thu Mar 28, 2019 1:12 pm

ChilenoEnDinamarca wrote:
Thu Mar 28, 2019 5:06 am
LoneWarrior wrote:
Thu Mar 28, 2019 4:33 am
ChilenoEnDinamarca wrote:
Thu Mar 28, 2019 4:29 am
Very very rare, If this this not correct, please remind me: Gible appears 1 in 34,500 pokemon.
The spawn rates of Pokemon have not been revealed, bit I doubt they would be that low.
Yeah, as LoneWarrior says, it is true about the rates, they are not revealed, my info is based on these calcs made Orkan, and since it is from almost 3 years ago, stuff might have change too. But, Gible is stil very very rare... people do find more shiny pokemons that Gible it self.
viewtopic.php?f=19&t=4956#p24617
I had read that topic a while ago and my opinion of it was that the logic used in calculating the rarity of Gible was flawed.

This is because of the following reasons-

-> The user calculated that Dratini appears i about once in 1,500 encounters. I personally have spent a lot of time in the Grotto and found the average encounter rate to be around 200-300. Of course it may be different for different users as we are only calculating average, but 1,500 is way over board.
(Of course it's possible that the actual rate in close to neither values).

And to get closer to precise, an average of a lot of observations have to be taken. So many that's it's not worth the time.

http://prntscr.com/n44qek
According to the player, they encountered 2 Dratinis in 3000 encounters.
2 Dratinis rate is not enough for sample set.
(For example, if I encounter 1 Dratini in 3rd encounter doesn't mean that its encounter rate is 1/3)

Orkan also did some weird things like about the level 10 Pokemon, which make no difference whatsoever.

-- The assumption that you will catch an encountered Dratini is completely wrong, and silly to even assume.

Dratinis have a decent chance of escaping while battling. Also, when you are sincerely hunting for Gible you may not want to catch a Dratini, nor would I do that if I encounter one while EV Training (which the grotto is popular for).

Another explanation for that fallacy - Players catch every Shiny Dratini but not normal ones. There are about 93k of Dratinis and evolutions, and 51 of total their shinies, which does not match the 1/4096 to 1/8192 ratio which was expected.
(And that ratio is not followed for Gible/evos either).

The user apparently used "simple maths" in a world where nothing is actually simple. Most things require complex calculations.

The absurd result of 1/34500 is a result of equally absurd logical reasoning and assumptions.

What the Caterpie calls the end of the world, the master calls a Butterfree.




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ChilenoEnDinamarca
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Thu Mar 28, 2019 3:50 pm

Not to mention that the post is from 2016 and maybe the rates were different at that time.. Moomoo milk drop rate was changed too, I remember that it was very rare drop too. Now it is more common. Dratini now a days a pears often (at least for me) 1 or 2 in 40 minutes.
I have Gible and to be honests, it pop-ed up after 2-3 pokemons in the Grotto, lol.
People have search Gible for month and still no luck. Others dont leave the grotto in one week, and get lucky. Others are not even looking for Gible and it appears x)
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